The Crop Plan Calculator for Peppers is a tool designed to predict and manage pepper harvests effectively. It allows growers to input data related to fruit set and development to generate accurate harvest predictions, enabling better planning and resource allocation.
There are two variables needed to forecast the number of harvestable fruit at any moment in time. These variables are:
Fruit set cohort per week: this means all the fruits set in a specific cohort (e.g. all the fruits set in week 1 is the fruit set cohort of week 1).
Fruit development time per cohort: the period between when a fruit is set and harvestable.
Forecasts provided by the calculator are constantly improved after each measurement. The calculator updates the forecast based on changes in the cohort and in the fruit development time. For example, if there is an abortion in a cohort or a change in fruit development time in any particular week, the forecast updates its outcomes.
Example: How does the calculator work?
The fruit development time per cohort is distributed over different weeks in the future. This means that in one cohort, fruits become harvestable in different weeks. We call this the fruit development time distribution. In the table below, every row represents the fruit development time distribution for a cohort. For example, in the row of Week 1 there is a fruit set cohort that sets in week 1. In 8 weeks from then, we expect 10% of the fruits to become harvestable, in 9 and 10 weeks, we expect respectively 50% and 40% to become harvestable.
Cohort | Fruit set | 8 weeks | 9 weeks | 10 weeks | Total |
Week 1 | 5 | 10% | 50% | 40% | 100% |
Week 2 | 3 | 25% | 45% | 30% | 100% |
Week 3 | 7 | 40% | 45% | 5% | 100% |
To calculate the total expected number of harvestable fruits in any given week, the calculator has to calculate how many fruits in the cohort become harvestable in a particular week. Be aware that we consider all harvestable fruits, not just the harvested ones. Using the table below, we are calculating the expected harvest in week 11.
Week 11 is:
10 weeks later than week 1, so we calculate the number of harvestable fruits as 5 (number of set fruits in the cohort) * 40% (percentage of harvestable fruits after 10 weeks) = 2 fruits
9 weeks later than week week 2, so 3 * 45% = 1.35 fruits
8 weeks later than week 3, so 7 * 40% = 2.8 fruits
The total number of harvestable fruits in week 11 is 2 + 1.35 + 2.8 = 6.15 fruits.
Cohort | Fruit set | 8 weeks | 9 weeks | 10 weeks | Total |
Week 1 | 5 | 10% | 50% | 40% | 100% |
Week 2 | 3 | 25% | 45% | 30% | 100% |
Week 3 | 7 | 40% | 45% | 5% | 100% |
Below, there are two situations that explain how updates in measurements lead to updates in the outcome of the calculator.
Situation 1: Abortion in the cohort
In week 4, plant measurements show that 1 fruit in the week 1 cohort has been aborted. Therefore, there are 4 fruits in this cohort, instead of 5. This leads to an update in calculation for harvestable fruits for week 11. This becomes:
Week 1 cohort: 4 * 40 = 1.6 fruits
Week 2 cohort: 3 * 45% = 1.35 fruits
Week 3 cohort: 7 * 40% = 2.8 fruits
Total = 1.6 + 1.35 + 2.8 = 5.75 fruits
Situation 2: Shift in fruit development time
In week 9, after the first harvest, 20% of the week 1 cohort is harvested, instead of the 10% that was assumed for after 8 weeks. The extra 10% then has to be redistributed over the other weeks, so that the total will be 100% again. This means that the expected harvest for after 9 and 10 weeks become respectively 45% and 35%, instead of 50% and 40%. This leads to an update in calculation for harvestable fruits for week 11. This becomes:
Week 1 cohort: 4 * 35% = 1.4 fruits
Week 2 cohort: 3 * 45% = 1.35 fruits
Week 3 cohort: 7 * 40% = 2.8 fruit
Total = 1.4 + 1.35 + 2.8 = 5.55 fruits
Note: Forecasts and updates on forecasts can be shared through the Source Harvest API, presenting the sales team with real-time updates on expected harvest.